Monday, February 16, 2009

Bad history= Bad economics

Much of the rhetoric and many of the analogies currently  being employed by journalists and those in government are historically inaccurate. While each economic period has unique characteristics, the most apt comparison we have is the 1981-82 timeframe not the 1929-1932 period. It is simply untrue to state that the current economic environment is "the worst since the Great Depression."

In 2008 , despite a sharp pull back in the 4th quarter, real (adjusted for inflation) GDP (Gross Domestic Product- the sum of all goods and services produced) was modestly positive for 2008. Compare that to GDP contractions of 1.9% in 1982 and 8-13% per year during the 1930-32 period. Job losses as a percentage of the workforce were identical in 1981 and 2008.  The current unemployment rate of 7.6% is still well under the 1982 peak of 10.8% and but a fraction of the 24% jobless rate reached in 1932.

Economic policies should be grounded in a realistic and genuine understanding of economic history. In the main, this is not what we see at present.