Remember- markets go up and down...not up and up

The almost linear run up in the stock market since early March is among the fastest in history. By some measures it is among the top 10 of all time. In early March many investors were thinking seriously about abandoning ship but now they are equally as concerned about maximizing their gains from this almost 50% rally.

Moat of you have heard our mantra about the markets before: Markets go up and down , not up and up. The point is to place emphasis on the long term and not become emotionally tied to the sometimes extreme short term gyrations in the stock market. We instead have to remind ourselves that the reason we invest is for our long term goals. We can't time the market successfully so in order to reap the long term equity returns , we have to actually be in equities.

The month of September has been among the cruelest months to the market in the recent past. We have no way of knowing if this September will be great,good, okay or terrible. What we do know is the market noise is just that...noise and should largely be ignored. Stay focused on the long term.

July and Jobs

The month just ended was the best overall month for the stock market in 7 years. That is cause to celebrate for sure! Year to date the S&P 500 Index shows an 11% gain. A diversified portfolio (like those we manage) with a 60% stocks/40% fixed allocation is up  about 14% for the year (this is because small and international have outperformed). 

On the jobs front I came across an interview with Charles (Chuck) Schwab . He said "we haven't restored the confidence of the people that create jobs". I think that is very well put. To a large extent confidence in the markets and the banking system has been restored but the big missing link is confidence among small businesses. Schwab goes on to say "there are 6 million businesses that employ more than 1 person. What would it take to get them to hire 1 more?"